You can reach Rich Tandler by email at WarpathInsiders@comcast.net
Other than the most important result, their own win in Arizona,
not much went right for the Redskins this weekend in their hunt to make the
playoffs. The three teams immediately in front of them in the NFC standings--Dallas,
Minnesota, and Atlanta—all won.
The chances of Washington
getting in with nine wins, as outlined here last week, are not gone but they
became a considerably longer shot than they were before. Now Dallas,
Minnesota, and Atlanta all need to lose two out of
three to wind up with nine wins instead of two out of four. I’m sure that there
is some statistical formula where you could work out the odds of decent teams
going .500 in four games compared to the chances of them posting a .333 winning
percentage in three games. Without Googling that formula, it’s safe to say that
the odds are for the latter are considerably worse.
All was not lost for the Redskins, however. The losses by
the Bears and the Panthers opened the door just slightly to a very tantalizing
possibility—a first-round bye.
All scenarios with three games left are pretty complex, but
this one isn’t all that hard to figure out. What has to happen first is for the
Redskins to win out and for the Giants to stumble either this week when they
host Kansas City or in the season
finale in Oakland. That gives the
Redskins the division championship at 10-6 based on what would be a better
division record than Dallas and the Giants should either of those teams also
finish at 10-6.
The other part, the help, is not likely to happen but it’s
possible. Seattle has 11 wins so
the NFC West winner is excluded from this discussion. The first thing that has
to happen is that the winners of the South and North finish with no more than
10 wins. That means that Chicago, Tampa,
and Carolina can win no more than
one more game and Minnesota can
win no more than two. You can look at their finishing schedules below and see
what you think the chances of that happening are before you read on.
The edge that a 10-6 Redskins team would have would be its
conference record. All 10 wins would be against NFC teams and none of the other
potential division winners could have a better conference record. That would give
them a week off should Carolina win
the South at 10-6 regardless of who wins the North (at 10-6, of course).
If Tampa Bay
wins the South at 10-6, Washington
would get the bye only if Chicago
won the North. Yes, Tampa Bay
did beat the Redskins but that wouldn’t matter because they didn’t play the
Bears and in a three-way tie, head to head only comes into play if one team
beat both of the other teams. It would then go to conference record and that
would be advantage, Washington.
The only combination that would have the Redskins playing in
the first round of the playoffs would be if Tampa
Bay won the South and Minnesota
won the North. The Bucs beat both the Skins and the Vikings so that would hand
them the #2 seed and Washington
and Minnesota would host the Wild
Card teams in the first round.
The chances of all of this happening are quite slim,
starting with the chances of the Redskins finishing 10-6. But this if this
weekend the Panthers, Bucs, and Bears all lose and the Redskins win, you’ll
start hearing about this possibility elsewhere. You will have heard it here
first.
One other scenario to be cleared up here is the question of
how a 10-6 Redskins team could miss out on the playoffs. First, the Giants
would have to win their other two games, giving them the division at 11-5. Then
it’s a matter of whether or not two or more of the other contenders gets to 11
wins. The issue of the loss to Tampa Bay
could also come into play should they and/or the Vikings finish in the tiebreaker
pool.
The playoff contenders with their overall, conference, and
division records and their remaining games.
1. Seattle: 11-2, 10-1, 6-0
Schedule: @Titans, Colts, @ Packers
2. Chicago: 9-4, 8-1, 4-0
Schedule: Falcons, @Packers, @Vikings
3. New York: 9-4, 8-3, 4-1
Schedule: Chiefs, @Redskins, @Raiders
4. Tampa: 9-4, 7-3, 3-1
Schedule: @Pats, Falcons, Saints
5. Carolina: 9-4, 6-3, 2-2
Schedule: @Saints, Cowboys, @Falcons
6. Minnesota: 8-5, 7-4, 4-1
Schedule: Steelers, @Ravens, Bears
7. Dallas: 8-5, 6-3, 3-2
Schedule: @Skins, @Panthers, Rams
8. Atlanta: 7-5, 4-4, 1-2
Schedule: Saints, @Bears, @Bucs, Panthers
9. Washington: 7-6, 7-2, 2-1
Schedule: Cowboys, Giants, @Eagles
